How many wishes do you need?
“Guaranteed” is the worst case - 180 wishes for a character from a fresh 50/50 - but almost nobody needs the worst case. Pick a confidence level and this calculator solves the exact inverse of the pity math: the smallest number of wishes that gives you that chance of your 5★, accounting for soft pity, your counter, the 50/50, Capturing Radiance and fate points.
Wishes needed for 90% chance of the featured 5★ character
≈ 24,800 primogems
Your full confidence ladder
| Confidence | Wishes | Primogems |
|---|
“Guarantee” = the mathematically worst case; soft pity usually delivers sooner.
Cheat sheet - wishes for a guaranteed 5★
Computed with the same engine at build time (pity 0, Radiance on, Epitomized Path on). Bookmark-worthy numbers for planning:
| Scenario | 50% chance | 90% chance | 99% chance | Hard guarantee |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Character banner - fresh 50/50 | 80 | 155 | 161 | 180 |
| Character banner - guaranteed next 5★ | 76 | 80 | 83 | 90 |
| Weapon banner - Epitomized Path, no fate points | 79 | 133 | 138 | 160 |
| Weapon banner - 1 fate point banked | 65 | 69 | 71 | 80 |
| Standard banner - any 5★ | 76 | 80 | 83 | 90 |
The famous “180 wishes” is the worst case for a character from a fresh 50/50 - you need the median at 80, 90% confidence at 155. Constellations stack the same ladder: C1 ≈ up to 360 worst case, C2 ≈ 540.
Wishes-needed FAQ
How many wishes is a guaranteed character, really?
Worst case 180 from a fresh 50/50: lose the 50/50 at hard pity (90), then hit hard pity again (90). With a guaranteed already banked it's 90 worst case. In practice soft pity pulls these far down - the 50/50-point is ~80 wishes and 90% confidence is ~155.
Why is 90% so much cheaper than a guarantee?
The last few percent are the most expensive: the guarantee must assume you lose the 50/50 and hit hard pity twice. Getting to 90% only has to survive one unusually unlucky branch, not the absolute worst one.
How many primogems is that?
Multiply by 160. 180 wishes = 28,800 primogems worst case for a character; 160 wishes = 25,600 for a selected weapon with one fate point. The savings planner converts these into patches of saving for your income level.